Friday, July 27, 2012

Science and Techology Predictions by 2037

Predictions in the next 25 years. 2012 to 2037.

A change in energy to solar power and fusion based power. The fusion based power will use water for fuel and hopefully end our dependence on carbon based fuels. Space based solar power will provide cheap and clean energy, fusion energy power plants will help launch space ships. If the US government refuses to do this to fund social programs, private and public corporations will do it for record profits.

Civil Rights the GLBTT same sex marriage bill will pass federal legislation and at a federal level have equal rights for GLBTT people. The USA will give up the traditional marriage definition for a more modern one. Generation-Y took control of the government to pass the laws.

People will be leaving religion having lost their faith because of a bad economy, because of attacks on religions, because many religions didn't support same sex marriages, and also because people have become more materialistic than spiritual. There is a worship of science and technology instead.

Thin computers are in, have become so miniaturized that they resemble pieces of paper but a bit thicker. The screens are flexible and respond to touch and voice. A smaller smart paper device that is more rigid will replace the mobile phone. Work on the neurochip, a computer implanted in the human brain is in process that allows people to think instead of type on a touch screen will revolutionize the computer industry.

Many Dotcom companies will have ultimately failed because they had broken business models. Very few will have survived. Many moved to parts in Asia for lower taxes and cheaper labor with hosted servers in the EU and USA for customers there. The Internet has changed to the Ultranet that is a managed network but restrictive on what one can do. Some hacker groups make their own Darknets to host pirated materials that are near anarchism on rules, there are proxy servers on the Ultranet that allow access to Darknets, and governments keep trying to shut them down.

The USA and EU suffer a great depression, there is a great collapse of the global economy. It is caused by a moral collapse, a social collapse, a cultural collapse, and the USA going into deep debt so that the US Dollar is basically worthless once it is no longer used to trade for other currencies. There will be an effort to use the Euro instead, but the new standard will be a bushel of currencies from more stable nations called the Global Unit or GU. Some people and nations will use the Bitcoin instead as a global currency. The US Dollar will be replaced with the Amero as Canada, Mexico, the USA and other nations in North America, Central America, and South America form the American Union in order to save local economies, mirroring the European Union. Many groups will leave the USA and other nations to start their own pirate nations.

Since most 'smart' jobs got offshored to India, India leads the world in science, engineering and technology resource and patents. The economy in India booms. China also has a booming economy as most manufacturing jobs have been moved there. They found a partnership in Asia with other nations, research done in India, manufacturing done in China, distribution to most of Asia without import taxes.

Due to climate change, the middle of the USA suffers droughts and turns slowly into a desert. The USA isn't able to produce enough food for the rest of the world. There is starving, until someone develops floating cities on the ocean and bodies of water and floating farms to control the environment under a climate controlled dome to grow food better. Some farms are put into climate control domes with water pumped in because of droughts.

As Generation-Y takes over, marijuana is legalized and taxed like tobacco. Since more people are killed by automobiles than guns due to being intoxicated by alcohol, marijuana,  and other things computers take over the driving of automobiles for most of the population. As a result there are less automobile accidents. But since people are dependent on technology they think less and are more emotional because of mood altering drugs.

Computers go to 128 bits, Moore's Law is broken as computers cannot advance fast enough due to limits in quantum mechanics and the law of thermodynamics but will go from 64 bits to 128 bits. What we know as Windows no longer exists and Microsoft develops a brand new operating system called Singularity written in C Sharp that has been under development for a long time. Apple reinvents the Macintosh OS renamed Mac OS 128 or iOS 128 that drops 64 bit support and develops new Macs and iOS devices using 128 bit technology. Linux moves to 128 bits with a new 128 bit kernel. The Nanochip will replace the Microchip on a much smaller scale using less power.

3D printers are all the rage now that they are affordable. First there are plastic printers and then metal ones. It revolutionizes small businesses by just printing out 3D parts using plastic and metal to make things out of to keep costs down.

Space Travel is commercialized, there is a vacation resort on the Moon, but time there is limited because it is expensive and getting resources to the Moon is costly. There are attempts to travel to Mars, but until fusion power plants are developed it won't be a reality. using water as fuel in fusion power plants will use the exhaust to push a ship in space. There will be asteroid mining for materials, and food and water put in orbits around the Sun near Mars, Jupiter, and the Asteroid belt like we have "gas stations" today in case people run out.

In the USA some states will want to secede from the Union, this will lead to a second civil war. Due to the federal government's out of control spending and bailouts, due to lack of funds to fight crime, due to the loss of rights freedoms and liberties for security and wars, there will be many states leaving the USA to become their own nation with their own currency. There will be many battles over it on land and at sea. Some people will go crazy with bath salts and be like zombies that the others will fight in a zombie uprising. The result is either a reformed third world USA, or separate states with a better economy.

2012 Predictions from 1987

25 years ago I was just out of high school and in college and made some predictions. I found them and thought I'd post them here.

Technology will advance and make a faster way to transfer information than the BBS Modems, this global network will connect people together and create new industries.

The Personal Computer era will be over, there will be touch screens to replace the keyboard and mouse. Cell phones will have gotten smaller and have their own touch screens.

We never made it to Mars nor made a base on the Moon, NASA lost funding because of foreign wars and the federal government going deep into debt trying to fund Social Security because the Baby Boomers outnumber everyone and the birth control and abortions in the 1960's cut the growing population to pay taxes to support Social Security and the government.

I expect the cold war with Communism is over, and we made peace with Russia and China, but went to war with other nations over natural resources like oil or perhaps some terrorist acts.

There should be a civil rights movement over gays, lesbians, bisexuals, transvestites, transexuals wanting rights and same sex marriage. No doubt some religions oppose that while other groups are for it. But there will be no civil rights for the mentally ill and some other groups.

I expect more gun shootings as society and culture breeds sociopaths and the economy has gone into a depression as people get desperate for work and income. If Social Security is shot, no doubt our healthcare is shot as well and you have people going without medication and suffering. Suicides should be up as well.

The Stock market should be corrupt as executives lie and cheat and defraud investors. Many companies are selling stock and going public only to go down in value. We will be seeing the 1920's all over again with worthless stock and swampland. I expect people will protest Wall Street and Big Businesses as many lose their jobs in the depression and all the government can do is protect their special interests that give them campaign money and let the people go without jobs, food, housing, and medical care.

I expect as science and technology advances that people lose their religion and worship science and technology instead. But because of corruption in science and technology it is used to attack religion and establish some sort of cult following. It won't be a religion per se but be a cult much like the people who worship Apple. I think that Apple will get a large following of people, most with little to no education or knowledge, who worship it because it made computers easier to use. Companies like Atari and Commodore won't get as many followers and be crushed eventually. IBM will lose to the PC Clone makers and wish it hadn't used off the shelf parts.

I expect some renewable energy sources will be found or developed but because of politics we will still be forced on carbon based fuels and nuclear reactors. I expect politics to play a part in this. One side for carbon based fuels, and the other side for renewable energy. I expect pollution to be worse because of the Wall Street corruption and the federal government looking the other way.

I expect society and culture to become corrupt, businesses will invent lifestyles and fashion of clothing for the masses as they call themselves individuals, people will be rebels for wearing these fashions but keep the companies rich who keep making and selling them.

I feel the dumbing down of the media and news, as well as books and movies being more about emotions, feelings, and sex and violence rather than plot, logic, and the moral of the story.

Colleges will make tests easier so more students can pass and so will public schools, and while our education system is a joke, the rest of the world will have a better education system in Europe and Asia, and somehow get all the good jobs while we in the USA get stuck to service jobs and retail jobs.

I expect the average US citizen will have health problems and weight gain as they are mass marketed food and drinks in the media, movies, and the like and spend less time exercising and more time wasting time instead of living a good life. Many are brainwashed by the media, movies, TV shows as products have become part of those things.

Monday, July 16, 2012

Global Warming has happened before according to Tree rings

Now this doesn't mean that global warming doesn't exist or is not human made. But during times in the past we had higher records than we have now. Human contributions to climate change, I want to use that name instead of global warming, are but one factor.

There are others such as the orbit of Earth around our Sun is not a perfect circle and it is an ellipse, perhaps it wobbles over time. Perhaps the Earth's poles move in position as the Earth shifts and changes the climate over time.  Perhaps we have natural sources of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. The only thing we have control over is human made greenhouse gases.

We should avoid fossil fuels and switch to green renewable energy not just for climate change, but because fossil fuels are finite and will run out one day in the future. Not only that but fossil fuels can become expensive at times. If we look at the Middle-East many terrorist states have money from the sale of fossil fuels, and switching to green renewable energy will cut off their funding. If we have wind, solar, water, and geothermal sources of energy in place it will be cheaper energy costs and less greenhouse gases. Most of our energy comes from coal burning plants, and in some cases nuclear reactors and the pollution from them we can do without.

We need to plan for the future, and find ways to have green renewable energy sources reduced in price and more available. So that people can put them on their homes and businesses to help reduce costs and even sell the surplus back into the grid if they save enough electricity. We need to develop the technology to put space based solar power into operations to harness the power of sunlight in space and then sell it to foreign nations to pay for our social programs and paying off the national debt. If done correctly, this will create wealth and help power third world nations.

Look the human race has survived higher temperatures in the past, and we will survive them in the future. While we may not be able to reverse climate change we can build technologies and discover sciences to better survive it. Even if that means underwater cities if the Earth floods or artificial islands. We have the science and technology potential to survive this. We need to stop arguing over if climate change is real or not, and work together to develop cheaper sources of green renewable energy and new technologies and scientific theories to help the human race survive into the future.

We spend so much money on wars and needless programs, we waste so much time arguing and pointing fingers, that we never seem to plan for the future and take responsibility even if it isn't our fault. We have evolved to a point where we are able to overcome natural selection with science and technology. There is no better computing device than the human brain that we know of. How about we start learn how to solve problems rather than creating new ones?

Saturday, July 14, 2012

The problem with IT and management and five problems and their solutions

There seems to be a problem with Information Technology. At least according to management. Let me explain.

#1 Lack of qualified job applicants forcing them to move jobs to third world nations and hiring H1B Visa workers.

#2 Unable to keep expenses under control even with IT workers who earn pennies on the dollar in a third world nation.

#3 Unable to get the quality correct with the product and service even with ISO 9000/9001 certification.

#4 Lack of documentation and communication skills.

#5 High turn around rates in the IT department sometimes reaching as high as 90%.

Despite the fact that the USA has more and more IT, Computer Science, and Engineering college graduates each year and they cannot find a job in their field, how can it be that there are not enough qualified IT workers?

There is a problem in management since long before I was born, a problem in the USA and a problem in how corporations work and function. It is called Classical Management and it needs to be reformed and managers retained for Participatory Management, Servant Leadership, Stewardship and other things. Let me explain.

Managers are often promoted from the field, it is not so much what they know or can do, it is more of a social thing than having a hard work ethic and having good results. This is a social problem, one in which having social skills and being friends with management will take you to the top. You got business meetings but they meet in bars and in some cases strip clubs or whatever and it is all about socializing and hanging out and having good times with each other than talking actual business. This is basically what happens in high school and other areas, you get divided up into social kliqs or social groups and then start excluding others from it.

Perhaps you heard of the glass ceiling? The one that women and minorities cannot break? It is a social ceiling and they run the board of directors and departments. If a woman or minority or woman minority is given a management job they try to control that person as a puppet instead of letting them decide for themselves. It is sort of like a gang of bullies at high school that run the school yard and won't let certain people join. The rules and the law does not apply to them as they are untouchable, royalty, gangsters or gangtas. This happens in other areas of society be it politics, government, non-profit groups, and the like. The old boys' club is basically ruining our economy and business and they get rid of any competition that thinks otherwise. Well I think otherwise.

To me diversity is a good thing, because you have people who think differently than some of the others who can think of things that others cannot figure out. Team work is a must, synergy is a must, but the old boy's network does not know how to make that work. They micromanage employees, they have team building events, they monitor their work and work them extra hours for no extra pay. They just do not know how to manage a diversity of people, so they go out of their way to force those who are different out of management and out of the firm if possible.

Problem #1, lack of qualified IT workers. Why is this a management problem? It is a management problem because management takes the easy route to use web sites to discriminate or reject candidates for the job based on criteria. For example they want Visual C# 2010 developers with 10+ years of experience and at least a bachelor's degree. Wait a minute, it is 2012 and Visual C# 2010 came out two years ago, so how can someone have a decade of experience in it? Sure you have people who have Visual C# 2002 experience for ten years, but they reject them, Visual C# 2002 is too old so anyone who has it on their resume is rejected. Even if they have Visual C# 2010 on their resume as well. Plus there are a lot of experienced people without a college degree or even with an associates degree that could not afford a bachelors degree and they are automatically rejected even if they have Microsoft certification.

I mean not understanding how the technology works or the terms is a big problem in management. If a manager is going to manage someone and hire them for the job, that manager better know the technology and terms the employee will be using and not just read talking points or Powerpoint slides on them. If they did then they'd know that a person with Visual C# 2002 on up to Visual C# 2010 experience is the one they want and not reject them, or set the filters on the web sites to not reject such a person. I mean come on, I have managers bragging to me that they get 500 to 1000 resumes a week for a programming job but no qualified candidates? Really? Check your mental filters and check your web filters too.

Problem #2 unable to keep expenses under control even with workers in third world nations earning pennies on the dollar compared to US workers. I have no hate for foreign workers, in fact I pity them as they are being used and abused and are not given much to show for it in pay and of course no benefits. If they get hurt or sick at work, they are out of a job, end of story. But it seems the more money managers save on labor the more money slips out of their fingers in expenses. You will find most of those expenses are for tech support of the product or service and they offshored tech support as well. All management did was hide the problem, it is usually a quality control problem, communication problem, defect, or just plain confusion.

Look, this makes as much sense as cutting off arms and legs of a patent to stop the bleeding. Your company is bleeding money and instead of finding out where the wound is a close it off and stop the bleeding you've just made the problem worse. There is a thing called job cost accounting let me sum it up you look at your revenues per product or service and assign numbers to track each product or service and then you track expenses by product or service. It is very simple the product and service that has more expenses than revenues are the ones you need to look into. That is where your business is bleeding money. You either need to stop those products and services or figure out what is wrong with them and fix them. Going for cheaper labor is not going to fix the bleeding all of the time. Then replace each product or service that was removed with a different one that you designed better. Remember Apple? Apple removed the Newton and then replaced it with the iPod which led to the iPhone and iPad. If Apple kept the Newton and didn't replace it with the iPod, where would it be today?

Problem #3 Uh sure you passed certification for quality control but still have poor quality. Did you try Six Sigma? Did you try not stressing out IT workers and Engineers and letting them do quality work instead of quantity? Did you try not going with "Fast Food" IT that cuts down the development cycle, cuts out the analysis and design cycle, cuts out documentation cycles, cuts out debugging or assigns it to one or two employees with "Legacy Projects", or did you actually give your IT workers and Engineers the support, time, tools, and training they need to reach their potential and make better quality products and services?

I mean really it used to take months to get things right, but somehow management decided to cut it down to weeks. Management wanted to make promises to have things made quicker faster, and those employees who took too long got fired, but they did quality work, so they are left with "Burger Flipper" quality workers who do the work quick, cheap, and on time. A business plan that works for Fast Food won't work for IT or Engineering. In fact in most cases the business plan makes no sense at all or just plain does not work.

Problem #4 lack of documentation and communication skills. Really you hire workers with English as a Second Language because they work for cheaper labor, and you cut out the documentation cycle, and you of course rush everything to get done as soon as possible and shortcuts are taken and then you ask "Where is the documentation? How come the employees didn't do it exactly the way we wanted it?" I mean common sense tells you why that happens.

Uh look giving ESL courses is nice, maybe a few weeks, teach workers how to communicate in English better. But it takes years if not decades to get to the level you want them at. You'll be better off learning their native language or hiring a translator, or just giving ESL workers extra time to document things better. You need to set up native English speakers with ESL speakers and have them teach each other and train better communication skills. You need to train employees on proper documentation and proper design specifications with more details than just Powerpoint slides.

Problem #5 High turn-around rates, how is that not a management or environment problem? Either you have to learn how to manage employees better and give them their freedoms, or you have to figure out if you have a toxic work environment that just breeds stress or both. Are you paying employees enough in a salary, are you providing good enough benefits? Do you have any workplace bullying? You could have sociopaths as workers or managers that just drive people away.

Something has to be done, or else a high turn-around will drain your talented employees away to your competitors. Your managers could be the problem, your employees could be the problem, you might even have to provide some diversity training. If this is happening to your company, something is wrong. You need to fix it before it gets worse.

TL;DR most of the problems with business are management related, and I am showing five problems and how they could be fixed. Management keeps blaming employees, but after excuses and excuses and downsizing and firing workers in mass groups and then claiming there is a lack of qualified workers, well after eliminating the problems with the workers, what do you have left to blame but the management? Take responsibility for your own management mistakes and learn from them.

Friday, July 13, 2012

Social stuff more important than math and science?

Discovery of evidence of the Higgs Boson.

I find it sad that there is evidence of the Higgs Boson and our news sites have headlines about celebrities behaving badly and other narcissistic stuff.

True it could be an imposter particle, and true we don't know if it is the real Higgs Boson either because there are a lot of particles in the particle zoo. The Higgs Boson tied the Standard Model of Physics together.

As Carl Sagan wrote in "The Demon Haunted World" we have moved away from math and science and the youth have lost interest in it.

I can myself see that many benefit from the technologies that science provides even if they don't understand how they work. I myself have made a living fixing computers and writing programs for people who have no clue how a computer works.

 I've talked to recent college graduates who claim they don't know why they cannot find a job, and I found they don't know how the law of thermodynamics works and cannot figure out simple math. I guess they have done too much work copying and pasting from Google, Wikipedia, and other students for their work, or maybe our colleges don't do a good enough job to teach them.

For example one recent graduate told me when I explained there was ice on our Moon, that ice cannot exist in the vacuum of space as it would evaporate into nothing. Huh? Many others called me a liar and using pseudoscience. But NASA did find ice on the Moon. Yet I am called stupid and crazy for saying there is ice on the Moon. This is something I reasoned out of high school in 1985 using high school Physics, and eventually NASA proved me right even if I was bullied and made fun of for it by classmates at the time.

I asked about a simple Math question, 2 + 1 + 4 * 0 and many answered that the result was 0 because the last number is multiplied by zero. Nope you do the multiplication first and then the addition next. 4 times 0 is 0, but 2 plus 1 is 3. Order of operations has to be followed and if it was using parenthesis like (2 + 1 + 4) * 0 then the result would be zero.

How do people pass college without knowing these simple things about math and science? Are they too busy partying, or playing video games, or social activities? When I was young my father told me to not use a calculator as it was a crutch and he was right. My math scores increased as I did my own work on paper instead of a calculator or computer. Has making things easier for people to use cut down on their skills and abilities? We see that with automobiles, people no longer walk down the street when they can drive and thus don't get exercise anymore and thus drive to the coffee store for a $5 cup of coffee. For $5 they can buy a bag of coffee from the super market and then use a coffee machine to brew all the coffee they want, but they would rather waste the gas driving down the street for a $5 coffee? People no longer call each other on the phone or write letters, they use text messaging or a social networking site like Facebook. Well what of others who don't use them? They get left out. Plus the message is just not as intelligent as it used to be, using acronyms and thinking with emotions instead of critical thinking, logic, and reason.

No the problem is not religion, the problem is not science or technology, it is in the way people have socially evolved. People have socially evolved to use technology as a shortcut to make things easier. Why write a birthday card when they can leave a message on someone's Facebook wall? Why the need for math when a program can figure out the math for them and all they have to do is press buttons and fill out forms? Why the need for science when they clearly don't understand it anymore and have a science fiction version of it? Why help out the less fortunate when they can listen to music and watch movies and TV shows and keep buying them to have corporations reach record profits?

Are we a Demon haunted World, or have we just reached a level of ignorance about technology, math, and science?
Hello there and welcome to my first blog. My name is Norman King and this blog is named The Norman Conquest of Technology and Science. I will cover technology and science areas along with epublishing, politics, and other related areas.

I have over 26 years of experience in the area, two college degrees, and I have worked for large and small companies. I have even run my own small businesses as a hobby, and have ideas for tech startups, software, and inventions.